The median voter essay

The Legislature has just one constitutional obligation—to pass a two-year state budget—and even getting that done is sometimes dicey. Early signs point to more of the same this session. But the governor and legislative leadership are pushing proposals that address few of these problems. Instead we hear about school vouchers, drug tests for the unemployed, and a ban on abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy.

The median voter essay

Posted on November 30, by Scott Alexander The median voter essay. If the world was created by the Invisible Hand, who is good, how did it come to contain so much that is evil?

Can he expect to get rich? No — if Google stock was underpriced ie you could easily get rich by buying Google stockthen everyone smart enough to notice would buy it. As everyone tried to buy it, the price would go up until it was no longer underpriced.

Big Wall Street banks have people who are at least as smart as your uncle, and who will notice before he does whether stocks are underpriced.


The city has lots of skilled Thai chefs and good access to low-priced Thai ingredients. With the certainty of physical law, we can know that city will have a Thai restaurant.

Maybe the city government banned Thai restaurants for some reason? We can take this beyond money-making into any competitive or potentially-competitive field. There are thousands of research biologists who would like a Nobel Prize. But go too far with this kind of logic, and you start accidentally proving that nothing can be bad anywhere.

Suppose you thought that modern science was brokenwith scientists and grantmakers doing a bad job of focusing their discoveries on truly interesting and important things. But if this were true, then you or anyone else with a little money could set up a non-broken science, make many more discoveries than everyone else, get more Nobel Prizes, earn more money from all your patents and inventions, and eventually become so prestigious and rich that everyone else admits you were right and switches to doing science your way.

There are dozens of government bodies, private institutions, and universities that could do this kind of thing if they wanted. But none of them have.

What Is the Median Voter Theorem? |

All the sick people would go to them, they would make lots of money, investors would trip over each other to fund their expansion into new markets, and eventually they would take over health care and be super rich. But if lots of people want better mass transit and are willing to pay for it, this is a great money-making opportunity.

Entrepreneurs are pretty smart, so they would notice this money-making opportunity, raise some funds from equally-observant venture capitalists, make a better mass transit system, and get really rich off of all the tickets.

But nobody has done this. No doctor had any good ideas about what to do at this point. Eliezer did some digging, found that existing light boxes were still way less bright than the sun, and jury-rigged a much brighter version.

How Ferguson Became Ferguson

A friend told Eliezer that the professionals at the Bank surely knew more than he did. But after a few years, the Bank of Japan switched policies, the Japanese economy instantly improved, and now the consensus position is that the original policies were deeply flawed in exactly the way Eliezer and others thought they were.

You would expect it to just not work at all. In previous years, I would use the case of central-line infections as my go-to example of medical inadequacy. Some babies have malformed digestive systems and need to have nutrient fluid pumped directly into their veins.

The nutrient fluid formula used in the US has the wrong kinds of lipids in it, and about a third of babies who get it die of brain or liver damage.

But the only FDA-approved nutrient fluid formula is the one with the wrong lipids, so we just keep giving it to babies, and they just keep dying. Eliezer draws on the economics literature to propose three main categories of solution:Originated in Harold Hotelling’s discussions about how political candidates’ platforms tend to converge during majoritarian elections, the Median Voter Theorem was formalized by Duncan Black in his work on majority voting and Anthony Downs in his research on representative democracy.

The median voter essay

In short, the Median Voter Theorem states that a majority . Feb 07,  · Economists view politics through the ”median voter theorem,” which holds that candidates can’t stray far from the center if they want to be elected.

Let It Bleed: Libertarianism and the Workplace — Crooked Timber One informal analysis suggests short first names are strongly correlated with higher salaries.
A dozen critical issues facing Texas that the Legislature really should address but probably won't. Overview[ edit ] Origin of the term[ edit ] Former U. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi used the term in November to provide context to the domestic agenda of the U.

The end of the median voter theorem in presidential politics? when a badly flawed essay can nevertheless generate some interesting thoughts.

the farther away the status quo is from the.

The Texas Legislature Should Address These Issues, But They Probably Won't.

Media coverage of the election often emphasized Donald Trump’s appeal to the working class. The Atlantic said that “the billionaire developer is building a blue-collar foundation.” The.

The median voter essay

Note that the median voter theorem does not generalize to cases with more than 2 candidates. Technical assumption: suppose you have the same policy position as. Misc thoughts, memories, proto-essays, musings, etc.

And on that dread day, the Ineffable One will summon the artificers and makers of graven images, and He will command them to give life to their creations, and failing, they and their creations will be dedicated to the flames.

Middle-class squeeze - Wikipedia